Project Title: Defending Single Case Propensity Theory & The Problem of Meta-Propensities

Principal Advisor: Associate Professor Phil Dowe

Project Abstract: The single case propensity interpretation of probability has gained quite a following in recent years, not least because it aptly explains many of the traits of probabilistic systems including convergence theorems. However, as this paradigm severs the connect between probabilities and relative frequencies, it leaves itself open to the charge of being an unverifiable metaphysical posit. This ultimately results in more fundamental problems including finkish propensities and the meta-propensity problem; this being that constant single case propensity systems are indistinguishable, both empirically and modally, from systems whose propensity value changes in an orderly manner so as to average at some value. The principle aim of this dissertation is to develop the single case propensity theory (as relates to the Fetzer-Nute variant) so that the meta-propensity problem can be resolved at the metaphysical or modal level even if it is empirically intractable.

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